Sudan’s ongoing civil war, ignited in April 2023, pits the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in a brutal contest for power, resources, and control. Rooted in decades of military maneuvering under former dictator Omar al-Bashir, the conflict exploded over disputes on integrating the RSF into the national army and leadership roles in a civilian transition. What began as a power struggle has spiraled into widespread atrocities, famine, and displacement affecting millions, with foreign meddling from nations like the UAE and Egypt fueling the flames. This blog delves into the historical backdrop, root causes, key players, timeline, humanitarian crisis, and stalled peace efforts, drawing on verified reports to highlight the urgent need for global intervention.
Key Points on the Sudan Conflict
- Power Struggle at the Core: The fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted in April 2023 due to tensions over integrating the RSF into the SAF and disagreements on leadership during a planned transition to civilian rule. Research suggests this is less about ideology and more about control over power, resources like gold, and military dominance, though ethnic tensions in regions like Darfur add complexity.
- Historical Roots with Potential for Escalation: The RSF evolved from the Janjaweed militias involved in the 2003 Darfur genocide, while both factions participated in coups in 2019 and 2021 that derailed democracy. Evidence leans toward this being a designed rivalry under former President Omar al-Bashir to prevent coups, but it has now spiraled, with risks of regional spillover.
- Humanitarian Toll and Controversy: Reports indicate up to 150,000 deaths, 12-14 million displaced, and widespread famine, with both sides accused of atrocities like ethnic killings and sexual violence. It seems likely that foreign backing—such as UAE support for the RSF and Egyptian/Iranian aid to the SAF—has prolonged the suffering, though all parties deny enabling genocide.
- Recent Shifts: As of late October 2025, the RSF captured El Fasher, the last SAF stronghold in Darfur, amid reports of mass killings, marking a potential turning point but raising fears of further violence. Diplomatic efforts have stalled, highlighting global apathy.
Background Overview
Sudan’s current war traces back to decades of instability, including civil wars and the 2011 secession of South Sudan. The immediate trigger was the 2019 overthrow of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir amid mass protests, followed by a fragile power-sharing deal between military leaders and civilians. A 2021 coup by SAF and RSF leaders halted progress toward elections, setting the stage for rivalry. For more, see the BBC’s guide at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjel2nn22z9o.
Main Causes
Disputes over RSF integration into the SAF, control of lucrative gold mines, and ethnic divisions in Darfur fueled the clash. Both generals—Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti” (RSF)—vied for supremacy after jointly seizing power. External arms flows have intensified the fight. Check the USIP analysis at https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/04/whats-behind-fighting-sudan for deeper insights.
Current Snapshot
Fighting continues in Khartoum, Darfur, and Kordofan, with the RSF holding most of Darfur after taking El Fasher. Humanitarian access is blocked, worsening famine. UN reports from October 2025 note escalating atrocities. Visit UN News at https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/10/1166224 for updates.
Sudan’s civil war, which began on April 15, 2023, pits the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in a brutal power struggle that has devastated the country. At its heart, the conflict stems from disagreements between two ambitious generals—Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the SAF and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, of the RSF—over who should lead Sudan during a transition to civilian rule. This rivalry, exacerbated by control over valuable resources like gold mines and ethnic tensions, has led to widespread violence, displacement, and famine. While both sides have been accused of atrocities, the war’s roots lie in a system designed under former President Omar al-Bashir to balance military powers, which ultimately backfired. In this detailed exploration, we’ll break down the background, causes, key events, impacts, and international dimensions, drawing on official reports, media analyses, and social media insights to provide a balanced view.
Historical Background: From Dictatorship to Fragile Transition
Sudan’s turmoil didn’t start in 2023. The country has endured decades of conflict, including the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005), which killed millions and led to South Sudan’s independence in 2011. Under Omar al-Bashir, who seized power in a 1989 coup, Sudan faced international isolation due to allegations of supporting terrorism and atrocities in Darfur, where the Janjaweed militias—precursors to the RSF—were accused of genocide, killing over 200,000 people between 2003 and 2005.
Bashir’s strategy was to create parallel security forces to prevent coups: the SAF as the traditional army and the RSF, formalized in 2013 from the Janjaweed, as a mobile paramilitary unit for counterinsurgency and border control. This “power struggle by design” ensured no single force could dominate, but it sowed seeds of rivalry. The RSF, under Hemedti, gained wealth through gold mining and mercenary work in Yemen, while the SAF maintained heavy weaponry and air superiority.
In 2019, mass protests forced Bashir’s ouster in a coup backed by both the SAF and RSF. A transitional government was formed, with Burhan as head and Hemedti as deputy, sharing power with civilians. However, a 2021 coup by the duo suspended the constitution and sparked more unrest. By December 2022, a framework agreement promised RSF integration into the SAF under civilian oversight, but deadlines were missed amid mutual distrust.
Key Causes: Power, Resources, and Ethnic Tensions
The immediate spark was a dispute over the RSF’s integration timeline and command structure. Hemedti feared losing autonomy, while Burhan sought to consolidate military control. Deeper issues include:
- Resource Control: The RSF dominates gold-rich areas in Darfur, smuggling to allies like the UAE, amassing billions. This economic independence made integration threatening.
- Ethnic Dimensions: In Darfur, the RSF—largely Arab-recruited—has targeted non-Arab groups like the Masalit and Zaghawa, echoing 2003 atrocities. Reports of ethnic cleansing add a genocidal layer, though both sides deny it.
- Political Ambitions: After the 2021 coup, Hemedti positioned himself as a reformer, while Burhan aligned with Islamists. Neither trusted the democratic process, leading to violence as a path to dominance.
Social media echoes this: One X user noted, “The RSF & SAF in Sudan are killing Christians and Muslims. It doesn’t seem to be a religious war, the two sides are fighting for power.. by killing their own people.” Another highlighted, “Two Sides of Coin . Two Generals. Mohamed Dagalo and Abdel Fattah. RSF vs SAF. Both are Fighting. No one is Good than the Other.”
Counterarguments stress balance: While the RSF faces genocide accusations, the SAF has a history of suppressing protests. Official UN reports confirm atrocities by both, including mass killings and sexual violence.
Major Players: Generals, Militias, and Foreign Backers
- SAF (Led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan): Sudan’s regular army, ~200,000 strong, with tanks, aircraft, and backing from Egypt and Iran (via drones). Controls northern and eastern Sudan, including Port Sudan.
- RSF (Led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti”): ~100,000 fighters, mobile and guerrilla-style, rooted in Darfur militias. Controls Darfur, parts of Kordofan, and gold resources; accused of ethnic targeting.
Foreign involvement complicates peace: The UAE allegedly arms the RSF for gold access, while Egypt supports the SAF over Nile interests. Iran provides SAF drones, and Russia (via Wagner Group) has aided the RSF. Sudan sued the UAE at the ICJ for genocide complicity, though dismissed. On X, users debate: “UAE support for RSF terrorist forces to genocide the Sudanese people… But you know -90% of Sudan’s smuggled gold goes to the UAE.” Conversely, “Iran is the only country that supports the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)… providing them with military aid like drones.”
Timeline of Key Events
Here’s a table summarizing major developments:
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| April 2019 | SAF and RSF coup ousts Bashir. | Transitional government formed, but military retains power. |
| October 2021 | Joint coup suspends civilian rule. | Protests erupt; transition derailed. |
| December 2022 | Framework agreement for RSF integration. | Deadlines missed, tensions rise. |
| April 15, 2023 | Fighting breaks out in Khartoum. | War begins; thousands killed in first weeks. |
| June 2023 | RSF kills West Darfur governor; ethnic massacres reported. | Genocide fears in Darfur. |
| March 2025 | SAF recaptures Khartoum; RSF drone strikes Port Sudan. | SAF gains in capital, but RSF expands in Darfur. |
| Late October 2025 | RSF captures El Fasher after 18-month siege. | Mass killings reported; Darfur fully under RSF control. |
Sources for timeline: CFR tracker and BBC guide.
Current Developments: El Fasher’s Fall and Escalating Violence
As of November 2025, the RSF’s October 27 capture of El Fasher—North Darfur’s capital and the SAF’s last Darfur stronghold—marks a bloody shift. Survivors report house-to-house executions, rapes, and mutilations, with thousands missing. UN officials called it a “darker hell,” with satellite imagery showing “blood on the sand.” The SAF controls the north and east, but RSF advances in Kordofan and Gezira suggest potential fragmentation.
Social media captures urgency: “Sudan has been torn by war since April 2023… The power struggle has devastated cities and displaced millions.” Another post warns, “The fall of El-Fasher to the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) marks a strategic and genocidal climax.”
Humanitarian Impact: A Catastrophe Unfolding
The war has killed up to 150,000, displaced 12-14 million, and left 30 million needing aid—the world’s largest crisis. Famine affects Darfur, with 24 million food insecure; cholera outbreaks have killed thousands. Women and children face rampant sexual violence, child recruitment, and malnutrition. Aid groups like the IRC provide WASH programs, cash aid, and health services, but blockades hinder delivery.
A table of impacts:
| Category | Details | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Deaths | Direct violence, famine, disease. | Up to 150,000. |
| Displacement | Internal and to neighbors like Chad. | 12-14 million; 4 million refugees. |
| Food Insecurity | Famine in Darfur; aid kitchens shut. | 24 million affected. |
| Health Crises | Cholera, malnutrition; hospitals destroyed. | Over 120,000 cholera cases; 3,000+ deaths. |
| Atrocities | Ethnic killings, rape, child soldiers. | Widespread in Darfur; UN-documented mass executions. |
International Involvement and Calls for Peace
The U.S. designated RSF actions as genocide in January 2025, sanctioning both leaders. UN Security Council briefings urge halting arms flows and ensuring aid access. Peace talks in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere have failed, with ceasefires ignored. Critics note global bias, as UN’s Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus highlighted racial indifference.
On X, balanced takes: “Both sides (RSF/SAF) fighting each other today in Sudan were directly involved in the earlier 2003 ‘genocide.'” Aid appeals: “Donations can fund lifesaving medical services, food, water.”
Conclusion: Paths Forward Amid Uncertainty
Sudan’s war is a tragic outcome of unchecked ambition and foreign meddling, with no clear winner. Diplomatic pressure, aid corridors, and accountability for atrocities could pave the way for peace. As one X post sums: “Only Dialogue of Peace can end the war in Sudan.” For now, civilians bear the brunt, underscoring the need for global action.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What happened in El Fasher recently, and why does it matter?
On October 27, 2025, the RSF ended an 18-month siege by capturing El Fasher, North Darfur’s capital and the SAF’s last major stronghold there, sheltering 800,000 displaced people. Reports from Human Rights Watch and survivors detail RSF-led mass executions, rapes, and looting, with videos showing dozens killed in house-to-house raids. This marks a strategic RSF victory, consolidating Darfur control, but raises genocide fears, echoing 2003 atrocities; UN officials warn of spillover violence beyond Darfur, worsening famine for 2 million locals.
How has the humanitarian situation deteriorated since El Fasher’s fall?
Aid agencies like the International Rescue Committee report blocked access, with RSF checkpoints halting convoys and SAF airstrikes destroying routes. As of November 2, 2025, over 2,000 are confirmed dead in El Fasher alone, adding to 150,000+ war deaths; 24.5 million face acute hunger, with cholera infecting 120,000 nationwide. Displacement surged by 100,000 in days, pushing totals to 14 million—half Sudan’s population—straining neighbors like Chad.
What evidence points to foreign involvement in the latest escalations?
UAE-linked arms shipments via Somalia’s Bosaso Airport have allegedly bolstered RSF advances, per investigative reports, in exchange for gold smuggling worth billions. Egypt provides SAF with logistics for Nile security, while Iranian drones aided their Khartoum push earlier in 2025. UN probes confirm these flows, though denials persist; social media timelines highlight UAE’s “fixation” on Sudan for resources, fueling proxy dynamics.
Are there new rebel groups entering the SAF-RSF fray?
Yes, the Joint Darfur Force (JDF)—a coalition of non-Arab militias like SLM and JEM—has clashed with RSF in North Darfur, killing 462 fighters in March 2025. Aligned loosely with SAF, they target RSF ethnic cleansing but risk fragmenting the war; CFR trackers note this could prolong stalemates, drawing in Central African Republic spillover.
What do recent peace talks look like, and why are they failing?
Saudi-led Jeddah and Kenyan IGAD talks in October 2025 yielded 20+ ceasefires, all broken—e.g., RSF ignored a 72-hour truce post-El Fasher. Rival governments (SAF’s “Hope” in Port Sudan vs. RSF’s “Unity” in Nyala) complicate unity; UN Security Council briefings urge arms embargoes, but veto threats stall action, per November 1 reports.
How is the economy faring amid the SAF-RSF war?
Sudan’s GDP has halved since 2023, with gold exports—90% RSF-controlled and smuggled—sustaining fighters but starving civilians. Infrastructure ruin (70% hospitals destroyed) and hyperinflation (200%+) deepen poverty; World Bank estimates $10 billion in losses, with Port Sudan’s oil ports under SAF yielding minimal revenue amid blockades.
What role has social media played in documenting the conflict?
X (formerly Twitter) threads and videos have exposed El Fasher horrors, with users like @saikirankannan sharing timelines of 400,000+ deaths. Hashtags like #ElFasherMassacre amplify survivor stories, pressuring UN action, but misinformation spreads—e.g., unverified RSF atrocity claims. Balanced posts stress mutual blame, aiding global awareness despite media blackouts.
Is there a risk of the war spreading regionally?
Yes, UN warnings on November 1, 2025, highlight spillover: RSF incursions into Chad displace 500,000, while SAF ties with Libya’s Haftar fuel border clashes. Famine refugees strain Ethiopia; experts fear a “Somalia 2.0” balkanization, with JDF involvement risking multi-front chaos.
What accusations of war crimes are leveled at both sides?
Both face UN-documented crimes: RSF for ethnic targeting (e.g., Masalit killings in El Fasher, per HRW videos); SAF for indiscriminate bombings and protest suppressions (100+ dead in 2021). Sexual violence as a weapon affects 8,000+ women; ICC probes both leaders, but enforcement lags due to foreign vetoes.
What can the international community do next?
Enforce arms embargoes via UNSC, fund $4.4 billion aid appeals (only 40% met), and push civilian-led talks excluding generals. U.S. genocide labels on RSF (January 2025) spurred sanctions; advocates urge African Union mediation to counter Gulf proxies, per Crisis Group recommendations.
