What Happened
Late on October 9, residents in Kabul heard two loud blasts near Abdul Haq Square, followed by gunfire. Local media and witnesses described a heavy security response, with Taliban forces sealing off the area. Speculation quickly spread that Pakistan was behind the strikes, aiming at high-value TTP targets hiding in the city. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed the explosions but assured the public there was no harm, calling it an “accident” under investigation. Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s Defense Ministry pointed fingers at Pakistan for not only the Kabul incident but also an attack on a market in Paktika, destroying shops and violating sovereignty.
Why Now?
Tensions have been building for years. Pakistan has long accused the Taliban government, in power since 2021, of allowing TTP militants to operate from Afghan soil. The group has ramped up attacks on Pakistani security forces, with over 2,500 deaths in 2024 alone. Recent weeks saw deadly assaults in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing dozens of soldiers. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have issued stern warnings, saying their patience is running out after hosting millions of Afghan refugees for decades.
Potential Impacts
If confirmed, this could mark a bold escalation, as strikes in the capital are rare. Analysts worry it might provoke retaliation from the TTP, increase sympathy for militants among Afghans, and derail fragile diplomatic efforts. With the Taliban pushing for international recognition through visits like Muttaqi’s to India, such incidents highlight the fragile peace in the region.
Tensions Escalate: Pakistan’s Alleged Airstrike on Kabul Amid Rising Border Clashes
In the heart of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, the night of October 9, 2025, turned chaotic with the sound of explosions echoing through the streets. What started as unconfirmed reports of blasts near Abdul Haq Square quickly snowballed into international headlines, with fingers pointing squarely at neighboring Pakistan. This incident isn’t just a one-off event—it’s the latest chapter in a long-simmering feud between Islamabad and the Taliban-led government in Kabul. Let’s break it down step by step, from the immediate facts to the deeper roots and what it might mean moving forward.
The Incident: Explosions in the Capital
Around 9:50 PM local time, two powerful blasts shook eastern Kabul’s District 8, close to key government buildings like ministries and the national intelligence agency. Eyewitnesses described hearing gunfire shortly after, and Taliban security forces rushed to cordon off the area, setting up checkpoints to control access. Social media buzzed with speculation, and local reports suggested the strikes targeted a vehicle belonging to Noor Wali Mehsud, the leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—a group designated as terrorists by the US and UN.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid took to X (formerly Twitter) to address the panic, posting in Pashto that an explosion was heard but “don’t worry, it’s all good and well.” He emphasized that an investigation was underway and, crucially, no injuries or damage had been reported yet. However, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense didn’t mince words, accusing Pakistan of violating Afghan airspace not just in Kabul but also in Paktika province, where a civilian market in the Marghi area was reportedly bombed, destroying several shops. This dual accusation painted a picture of coordinated aggression, with the ministry warning of “consequences.”
On the Pakistani side, officials have been tight-lipped. Army spokesman Ahmad Sharif, in a press conference, neither confirmed nor denied involvement but reiterated that Afghanistan serves as a base for attacks against Pakistan. “We have evidence,” he said, adding that measures to protect Pakistani lives would continue. Earlier that day, Pakistan’s military announced it had killed more than 30 TTP fighters in operations in the Orakzai tribal district, linking them to recent attacks on their forces.
Unverified audio clips circulating online purportedly feature Mehsud claiming he survived the attack, but his fate remains unclear. Some Pakistani media outlets and social media posts celebrated the strike as a success, claiming Mehsud and commanders like Qari Saifullah Mehsud and Khalid Mehsud were eliminated. However, without official confirmation from either side, these remain rumors.
Background: A History of Mistrust and Violence
To understand why this happened, we need to look back. Since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021, relations with Pakistan have soured dramatically. Pakistan, which once supported the Taliban, now accuses them of providing safe havens to the TTP—a splinter group from the Afghan Taliban focused on overthrowing the Pakistani government.
The TTP has intensified its insurgency in Pakistan’s northwestern regions, particularly Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which shares a porous border with Afghanistan. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) shows the TTP involved in at least 600 attacks or clashes in the past year, with 2025’s violence already surpassing 2024’s total. Last year was one of Pakistan’s deadliest in a decade, with over 2,500 killed in militant-related violence. September 2025 alone saw 135 deaths and 173 injuries in attacks.
Pakistan has responded with cross-border operations before, including airstrikes in Afghan provinces like Paktika, Khost, Nangarhar, and Kunar in 2024 and earlier 2025. Afghanistan has consistently protested these as sovereignty violations, claiming civilian casualties, while Pakistan insists they target only militants. Adding fuel to the fire, Pakistan launched a mass expulsion of nearly a million Afghans since November 2023, straining ties further.
Efforts to mend fences, like Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar’s visit to Kabul in April 2025 and China-mediated talks, led to a brief lull over the summer. But recent attacks on Pakistani soil—killing 19 security personnel in raids—prompted sharp rhetoric. Prime Minister Sharif, after visiting wounded soldiers, told Afghanistan to choose between goodwill or siding with terrorists. Defense Minister Asif echoed this, saying “enough is enough” amid daily funerals for military personnel.
Reactions from All Sides
The Taliban government has launched a full investigation but has downplayed the Kabul blasts to avoid panic. Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, speaking from New Delhi during a landmark six-day visit—the first by a senior Taliban official to India since 2021—condemned the border attacks but denied any airstrike in Kabul itself. He assured India that Afghan soil wouldn’t be used against it and urged Pakistan to pursue peace.
In Pakistan, officials remain non-committal, but the military’s announcement of killing TTP fighters suggests a broader offensive. Analysts like Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud from the Pakistan Institute of Conflict and Security Studies see this as a warning shot, potentially targeting TTP hubs in Kabul or Kandahar if threats persist. Security expert Tameem Bahiss warns that admitting strikes in the capital could inflame tensions, harden positions, and reduce cooperation against the TTP.
International reactions are muted so far, but the timing—coinciding with the Taliban’s outreach to India—raises eyebrows. Pakistan has accused India of supporting anti-Pakistan groups, a claim New Delhi denies. Border crossings between Pakistan and Afghanistan were reportedly closed on October 10, adding to the economic strain.
Implications: A Risky Gamble?
If Pakistan did orchestrate the strikes, it’s a significant escalation—striking the capital is rare, with the last major one being the US drone kill of al-Qaeda’s Ayman al-Zawahiri in 2022. Experts fear it could backfire: provoking TTP retaliation, boosting militant recruitment through anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan, and complicating regional diplomacy.
The Taliban’s recalibration toward powers like India and China shows their push for legitimacy, but incidents like this underscore the fragility. For ordinary people on both sides, caught in refugee flows and border violence, the human cost is mounting. Previous strikes haven’t yielded lasting results, only deeper mistrust.
Casualties and Targets: A Closer Look
| Aspect | Details | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | Primarily TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud’s vehicle near Abdul Haq Square; possible commanders Qari Saifullah and Khalid Mehsud. Market in Paktika also hit. | Wikipedia, Al Jazeera, X posts |
| Casualties | No confirmed deaths or injuries in Kabul per Taliban; unassessed in Paktika. Pakistan claims 30+ TTP killed in separate Orakzai ops. | Al Jazeera, Washington Post |
| Damage | Taliban reports none in Kabul; shops destroyed in Paktika market. | Afghan Defense Ministry statements via X |
Regional Violence Trends
| Year/Period | Key Stats | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Over 2,500 killed in Pakistan; deadliest in nearly a decade. | Surge post-Taliban takeover; TTP blamed. |
| 2025 (Q1-Q3) | Violence nearly matches 2024 total; 600+ TTP attacks/clashes. | ACLED data; September: 135 killed, 173 injured. |
| Recent Weeks | Dozens of Pakistani soldiers killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. | Linked to TTP safe havens in Afghanistan. |
As the dust settles, one thing is clear: without genuine dialogue, these clashes risk spiraling into something bigger. Both sides have much to lose—Pakistan its security, Afghanistan its sovereignty and budding international ties. For now, the region watches warily, hoping cooler heads prevail.
Key Points
- Alleged Airstrike in Kabul: On October 9, 2025, explosions rocked eastern Kabul, with reports pointing to Pakistani airstrikes targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leaders, including chief Noor Wali Mehsud. Taliban officials downplayed the incident, reporting no casualties or damage, but accused Pakistan of violating Afghan airspace.
- Broader Context of Attacks: The same day, Pakistan claimed to have killed over 30 TTP fighters in its Orakzai district, amid rising cross-border tensions. Afghanistan also reported a Pakistani bombing of a civilian market in Paktika province, heightening fears of escalation.
- Diplomatic Fallout: This comes as the Taliban seeks stronger ties with India, with Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visiting New Delhi. Pakistan warns Afghanistan against harboring terrorists, signaling strained relations that could lead to more clashes.
- Uncertainty and Reactions: While some reports claim Mehsud’s death, it’s unverified. Experts suggest such actions may worsen mistrust without resolving underlying issues, and border crossings between the two countries have reportedly closed.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What happened in Kabul on October 9, 2025?
Explosions were reported late at night near Abdul Haq Square in eastern Kabul. Witnesses described two loud blasts followed by gunfire, with Taliban forces quickly securing the area. The Taliban initially downplayed it as an isolated incident under investigation but later accused Pakistan of airstrikes.
Who is accused of carrying out the airstrike?
Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government directly blamed Pakistan for the strikes, citing violations of Afghan airspace in both Kabul and Paktika province. Pakistan’s military has neither confirmed nor denied the allegations but has emphasized its right to defend against militants.
What was the target of the alleged airstrike?
The strikes reportedly targeted a vehicle or compound linked to Noor Wali Mehsud, the chief of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group operating against Pakistan from Afghan soil.
Were there any casualties reported?
The Taliban reported no casualties or significant damage in Kabul, describing the blast as causing no harm. In Paktika, shops were destroyed, but specific casualty figures were not provided. Unverified reports suggest TTP leaders may have been killed.
How did the Taliban government respond?
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed the explosions but assured no damage occurred. The Defense Ministry condemned the acts as sovereignty violations and warned of repercussions. Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, while in India, denied strikes in Kabul but criticized border attacks.
What is Pakistan’s official stance on the incident?
Pakistan’s military has been silent on the Kabul allegations but reported killing over 30 TTP militants in domestic operations the same day. Officials have repeatedly warned Afghanistan against harboring terrorists, stating their patience is exhausted.
What is the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)?
The TTP is a militant group seeking to impose strict Islamic rule in Pakistan’s northwest. Designated as terrorists by the US and UN, they have conducted numerous attacks on Pakistani forces, with over 900 security personnel killed in 2025 alone.
How has this affected Pakistan-Afghanistan relations?
The incident has escalated tensions, leading to the closure of all border crossings on October 10. It highlights ongoing disputes over militant safe havens, with Pakistan accusing the Taliban of inaction and Afghanistan protesting sovereignty breaches.
Is there a connection to the Taliban’s diplomatic visit to India?
The strikes occurred during Taliban Foreign Minister Muttaqi’s visit to New Delhi, the first senior Taliban trip to India since 2021. Pakistan suspects Indian support for anti-Pakistan militants, viewing the timing as linked to shifting regional alliances.
What are the potential consequences of this event?
It could lead to retaliatory actions, further border closures impacting trade, and broader regional instability involving India. Analysts warn of increased militant recruitment and strained diplomacy without dialogue.
